BIG AL'S FOOTBALL SERVICE NFL:
The Buffalo Bills have won and covered 3 straight games to move their record to six wins and six losses on the season, and Mike Mularkey's crew is still eligible, albeit a longshot, to make the playoffs. The Bills have also covered 5 of their last 6 games, and their only pointspread failure was against the New England Patriots, who are 9- 1-2 against the spread this season, so I'll excuse Buffalo for that. The key factor in Buffalo's turnaround after an 0-4 start has been the strong play of running back Willis McGahee over the last seven games. And by having McGahee in the backfield, quarterback Drew Bledsoe has been a lot steadier in the pocket. He's now staying within himself, and not committing turnovers. After playing their last 2 games on the road the Bills will now come home where they've won and covered 4 straight games. Their opponent will be the Cleveland Browns, who have lost and failed to cover 5 straight games. And for the 2nd straight week, Coach Terry Robiskie will start Luke McCown at quarterback. I'm going to take the Buffalo Bills here, as they fall into some terrific angles. First, home favorites of minus ten points or more are 33-15 against the spread, if they are off back to back road wins, including 13 in a row since December 1984 if our home team scored 24 or more in its previous game, and is now matched up against a division foe. And I also have a super system which goes AGAINST Cleveland off its 42 to 15 loss last week versus New England. What we want to do is go against a road underdog that gave up more than 41 points in its previous game, which it also lost, if it's matched up against a .454 (or better) team off back to back wins and ******. This system is an almost perfect 17-1 against the spread, and it's only loss was by a single point! Take Buffalo.
Chicago at Jacksonville
Last week, the Jaguars came within a point of ending the Steelers' 10 game win streak, but lost at home 17-16. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears upset Minnesota 24-14 at Soldier Field behind quarterback Chad Hutchinson, who is the fourth quarterback used by Coach Lovie Smith this season. Hutchinson actually played pretty well. He completed 18 of 30 passes, and threw for 3 touchdowns. He has a strong arm, and is much more decisive than either Craig Krenzel or Jonathan Quinn were. But I don't think the Bears will have much success against Jacksonville's defense. The Jags have only allowed two 100- yard rushers in two seasons under Coach Jack Del Rio, and I expect them to put a lot of men in the box to shut down running back Thomas Jones. So, even though Jacksonville has not won a game by more than six points this season, I'm going to take the Jags here minus the touchdown as Del Rio's squad falls into some solid angles. First, home favorites off a home loss are 39-29 against the spread vs. a foe off a home win. And road underdogs of seven points or less are 104- 158 against the spread, if they're off a straight up win as an underdog and scored 24 or more points in that upset win. And we can improve our 158- 104 number to 14-3 ATS if our home team has a .500 or better record and is off back to back losses. Take Jacksonville.
Kansas City at Tennessee
Let's take a look at the Monday night matchup between Kansas City and Tennessee. Last week, the Chiefs defeated Oakland 34-27 while Tennessee was blown out 51-24 by Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. I really think this game is going to be a low-scoring affair and I'm going to take it under the total, which is 52 points. And there's an awful lot of technical support for the under. First, Monday night home teams off back to back road losses have played 18 unders and just 4 overs, including a perfect 12- 0 to the Under if the line is 43 or higher. And I have a second system which has gone UNDER 26 of 32 times since October 25, 1981, including 13-0 since 1991. And this system is quite simple. What we want to do is play on the UNDER anytime our home team gave up more than 28 points in its previous game, and our road team scored more than 28 points in its last game. As I mentioned, Tennessee surrendered 51 to Indianapolis, while KC scored 34 vs. Oakland. This system is a perfect 3-0 this season, and the games haven't even been close. St. Louis defeated Seattle 23-12 when the total was 51, so that game went under by 16 points. The system also won when New Orleans beat Kansas City 27-20 and that game went under by 9.5 points. And the system's last play was the Sunday night game between Houston and Green Bay, which the Packers won 16-13, but the over/under was 50.5 points. Take the 'Under'.
I'm also going to take Tennessee, as the Titans fall into a system that is 12-0 ATS since 1980. What we want to do is play on any Monday Night home team that gave up 37 points in its last game, and failed to cover the spread by 11 or more points, provided they are NOT favored in their current game by 3 or more points. Last week, Tennessee lost 51-24 as a 12-point underdog to Indy, so let's take Jeff Fisher's crew to rebound with a solid win against KC.
Philadelphia at Washington
Last week, the Redskins had a breakout game, as they scored more than 18 points for the first time all season in a blowout 31-7 victory over Eli Manning and the New York Giants. If the Redskins are going to cover the spread in this Sunday night game, they're going to have to get in the end zone at least two, if not three times, because Philadelphia almost always scores 27 points. They've hit that number in 9 of 12 games, and only failed to score 27 vs. the Steelers, Ravens and Bears. Last month, Philly was favored by 10 points at home vs. these Redskins and won 28-6. Now, three weeks later, they're favored by a similar number on the road. I think this is an overlay, and there's great value in taking the points. I also don't think Washington has played all that bad in the past month since inserting Patrick Ramsey at the quarterback position. They lost by just 9 at Pittsburgh, and by 7 vs. Cincinnati. But the Steelers have the league's best record, and Cincy is 4-1 straight up and 4-0-1 against the spread in its last 5 games. Finally, I have an angle on Washington which is 11-1 ATS, and it simply says to play against any team with a .900 or better win percentage in the last 4 weeks of the season. Unlike the league's other two teams with just one loss -- New England and Pittsburgh -- who are fighting for the AFC's best record, the Eagles have already locked up a bye in the Playoffs, and pretty much know that they will be the NFC's #1 seed. Off a huge win last week against Green Bay, this is a perfect letdown spot, and especially since Philly already routed Washington by 22 points. Take the Redskins.
Pittsburgh vs. New York Jets
The Steelers have been nothing short of spectacular since rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger became the starter. They've now won 10 straight games, but have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 3 games. They won by just a single point last week as a 3-point favorite at Jacksonville. Two weeks ago, they defeated the Redskins by 9 points as a 10 point favorite. And three weeks ago, they pushed against the Stardust's closing line of minus 5 when they beat Cincinnati 19-14. Now, Bill Cowher's crew is favored by 6 points at home against the 9-3 Jets, who have not lost by more than 6 points all season. New York's 3 losses were by 6 points to New England, by 5 to Buffalo, and by 3 to Baltimore. I'm going to go against the Steelers, as they fall into a negative situation that is 1-15 ATS, including 0-11 in the regular season. What we want to do is play AGAINST any team on a 7-game or better win streak, if they failed to cover the spread in their previous game, and the pointspread ranges from -8.5 to +2.5 points. Take the points.
Indianapolis at Houston
Peyton Manning is having perhaps the finest season a quarterback has ever had in the NFL, and the Colts have topped the 40-point mark in each of their four games. Back on November 14, Indy was favored by 8.5 points against Houston, yet crushed the Texans 49-14. They then won road games at Chicago and Detroit by almost identical scores of 41-10 and 41-9. And last week, the Colts thrashed Tennessee 51-24. So off these four fantastic offensive performances, Peyton Manning and company are favored by 11 points at Houston when they would have been installed as a field-goal favorite a month ago. And it's not just the extra 8 points that in and of itself is huge, but look at where these 8 points are situated. By going from +3 to +11, you're crossing the key numbers of 3, 4, 6, 7 and 10. This is tremendous value. Last week, Houston lost 29-6 to the New York Jets, but that was a misleading final score. The Texans actually let that game 7-6 midway through the 3rd quarter. And Houston is a much better home team than road team. They are 3-3 at home this year, but their 3 losses were by 7 points to San Diego in Week 1 - and that loss looks pretty good right now; by 6 points in overtime to Minnesota; and by 3 points to the Packers. So no team has gone into Houston and won by more than a touchdown this season, and this trend also goes back to last season when the Texans were not defeated at home for their last 7 games, including a 3 point loss to these same Colts on the final weekend, 20-17, when the Colts were favored by 8.5 points. So that's 13 straight home games that Houston has won, or been within a touchdown. I also have a lot of technical angles that go against Indianapolis. One of the better ones is the following: Play against any road favorite off back to back games in which they scored 30 or more points, provided they won their last game by 15 or more, and are matched up against a foe off a road game. This angle is 32-13 ATS since 1980, including 10-1 ATS if it's a division game, and our home team is off a loss. Take the Texans.
..
